Leopold Aschenbrenner

History is live in San Francisco.

AGI by 2027 via ~0.5 OOM/year compute scaling + ~0.5 OOM/year algorithmic efficiency + unhobbling gains.

Hundreds of millions of AGIs automating AI research, compressing 5+ OOMs of algorithmic progress into ≤1 year.

The techno-capital acceleration: trillions into GPUs, data centres, and power before end of decade.

Labs are handing AGI secrets to the CCP on a silver platter. State-actor-level security is nowhere close.

Controlling AI systems smarter than us is unsolved. Failure during a rapid intelligence explosion could be catastrophic.

Superintelligence confers decisive military advantage. The free world's survival is at stake.

The national security state will get involved. By 2027–28, a government AGI project will be on.

No crack team is coming. The few hundred with situational awareness must act.

The interview that accompanied the Situational Awareness launch. Covers the OOM trendlines, trillion-dollar clusters, Chinese espionage, Aschenbrenner's account of his OpenAI dismissal, lab security failures, and the national security implications of superintelligence.

Dwarkesh Podcast · June 4, 2024 · ~3h

Presentation on the AGI strategic picture to a Stanford audience, covering the same core arguments as the essay series with additional Q&A on economic implications.

Stanford University · September 2024

Early interview covering Aschenbrenner's background, effective altruism involvement, Columbia experience, career decision-making, and initial thoughts on existential risk and long-termism.

Then Do Better Podcast · June 2021

Co-authored while at OpenAI's Superalignment team. Explores whether weak AI models can supervise stronger AI models — a core challenge for aligning superhuman AI. Presented at ICML 2024.

International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) · 2024

Co-authored with Philip Trammell at Oxford's Global Priorities Institute. Models economic growth trajectories under scenarios of increasingly capable AI systems.

Global Priorities Institute, Oxford · with Philip Trammell

Aschenbrenner's personal blog and Substack. Covers AI scaling trends, economic growth, and AGI strategy. Where the Situational Awareness essays were first announced.

Essays published in the Stripe-funded publication covering progress studies, economic growth, and policy.

Detailed profile covering Aschenbrenner's career trajectory from FTX Future Fund through his reported OpenAI dismissal to founding Situational Awareness LP.

Detailed summary of all Situational Awareness chapters with community discussion, critiques, and compiled response links from across the rationalist and EA communities.

Mainstream tech media perspective on the essay series, noting both its reach and the reality check that Aschenbrenner's AGI timeline remains a minority position among experts.