Independent ledger | Reviewed 2026-06-04

AI Prophecy Index

A sourced accountability ledger for public AI forecasts: what was predicted, what actually happened, and how the record is being scored.

Built for readers checking public claims against sourced outcomes. The resolved record is a scored sample, not an overall forecaster accuracy ranking; the ledger is reviewed periodically, not in real time.

Explore predictions Read how scoring works

Resolved sample only16 multi-source reviews44 claims still open

Scope

Public AI forecasts, later evidence, and contextual events.

Caution

Small resolved sample. Not an overall forecaster ranking.

Cadence

Reviewed periodically against linked public sources.

Claims tracked

Public forecasts

12/56

Resolved predictions

12 confirmed, 0 incorrect

Unresolved

Outside hit rate

100%

Source-linked

16 multi-source

Events

Context records

Still unfolding

Active claims

Resolved hit rate is 100% among 12 scored claims.Resolved hit rate excludes unresolved and too-early claims.

The forecasters

Three public records under review.

File 0122 tracked

Carl Shulman

Policy researcher and independent scholar tracking AI trajectories, intelligence explosions, and economic transformation.

View profile View predictions Source profile

File 0222 tracked

Leopold Aschenbrenner

Former OpenAI researcher and author of Situational Awareness, focused on near-term AGI, compute, and national security.

View profile View predictions Source profile

File 0312 tracked

Ajeya Cotra

METR researcher and former Open Philanthropy technical AI safety lead, best known for biological anchors and shorter transformative-AI timeline updates.

View profile View predictions Source profile

Data viewSnapshot of the ledger.Show summary

Status mix

12 confirmed, 0 incorrect, and 44 unresolved claims.

Topic clusters

Largest groups: Capabilities (20), Economics (14), Safety (13).

Timeline density

Busiest forecast year: 2030 with 23 tracked predictions.

Open the tracker for search, filters, source trails, and card-level evidence maps.

Prediction tracker

Open the full ledger.

Search, filter, and open evidence cards on the dedicated tracker page. Keeping the full interactive ledger separate lets the overview stay fast while preserving the same sourced review workflow.

Open tracker

Find claims by source, topic, outcome, or evidence wording.

Filter

Separate resolved claims from forecasts that are still unfolding or too early to score.

Evidence

Open each card for score basis, source coverage, references, and review month.

Comparative score sheets

Forecaster scorecards

Resolved hit rate counts only scored predictions. Unresolved claims stay visible in the ledger but do not count against the rate, so this should not be read as overall forecaster accuracy.

File 01

Carl Shulman

22 claims

5/22

Resolved

Confirmed

Still unfolding

100%

Source coverage

File 02

Leopold Aschenbrenner

22 claims

6/22

Resolved

Confirmed

Still unfolding

100%

Source coverage

File 03

Ajeya Cotra

12 claims

1/12

Resolved

Confirmed

Still unfolding

100%

Source coverage

File 0122 claims

Carl Shulman

Confirmed5

Still unfolding5

Too early to score12

Total claims22

Resolved hit rate100%5/5 resolved; 17 unresolved

Confirmed5

Still unfolding5

Too early to score12

Incorrect0

Linked source coverage100%6 multi-source; 16 single-source

Confirmed5(23%)

Still unfolding5(23%)

Too early to score12(55%)

Resolved sample: 5/22; 5 confirmed and 0 incorrect.

File 0222 claims

Leopold Aschenbrenner

Confirmed6

Still unfolding6

Too early to score10

Total claims22

Resolved hit rate100%6/6 resolved; 16 unresolved

Confirmed6

Still unfolding6

Too early to score10

Incorrect0

Linked source coverage100%8 multi-source; 14 single-source

Confirmed6(27%)

Still unfolding6(27%)

Too early to score10(45%)

Resolved sample: 6/22; 6 confirmed and 0 incorrect.

File 0312 claims

Ajeya Cotra

Confirmed1

Still unfolding6

Too early to score5

Total claims12

Resolved hit rate100%1/1 resolved; 11 unresolved

Confirmed1

Still unfolding6

Too early to score5

Incorrect0

Linked source coverage100%2 multi-source; 10 single-source

Confirmed1(8%)

Still unfolding6(50%)

Too early to score5(42%)

Resolved sample: 1/12; 1 confirmed and 0 incorrect.

Tracking predictions over time. Updated as evidence emerges.