Methodology

The tracker includes public, attributable AI forecasts that can be connected to a date, source, forecaster, and later evidence. A claim is easier to score when it has a concrete time horizon, observable outcome, or falsifiable threshold.

Broad worldview claims, recommendations, and risk arguments may appear only when they are part of the public forecasting record. They are not scored as resolved unless the public evidence is specific enough.

Resolved hit rate is calculated as confirmed predictions divided by confirmed plus incorrect predictions. Still-unfolding and too-early and too-early-to-score claims remain visible in the ledger but are excluded from that rate.

Each prediction card carries source material, references, a last-reviewed date, and an AI-assisted assessment. Primary sources, original forecasts, official releases, technical reports, and public benchmark records are preferred where available.

Reputable reporting and institutional summaries are used when they are the clearest public evidence available.

Statuses can change as new evidence arrives. The ledger is reviewed periodically, not in real time. Scores reflect the public record as of the listed review date. A score is an editorial judgement about the public record as of the listed review date.

Material scoring changes should be logged with the review date, affected claim, new status, previous status, and source that changed the record. This release has one public baseline entry:

1. 2026-05-18 · Current scoring baselineCurrent prediction statuses, evidence notes, source links, and methodology page reflect the active public baseline for this static release.

This index is not a complete database of every AI forecast, and it does not claim to be neutral in the way a formal forecasting tournament would be. It is a transparent editorial tracking project with source links and visible scoring notes.

The tracked forecasters are not affiliated with this site. AI-assisted summaries and assessments may contain mistakes, omissions, or bias. Do not rely on this site for investment, legal, policy, or other consequential decisions without independent verification.

The best correction request identifies the prediction, the disputed status or evidence claim, and a public source that changes the scoring record. Corrections can be sent to scott@scotthazlitt.ai.